Demand Forecasting in Pharmaceutical Industry Using Artificial Intelligence: Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Gokce Candan, Mehmet Fatih Taskin, Harun Resit Yazgan

Abstract


Because of human healthcare, the pharmaceutical industry is considered as one of the most significant industrial sectors. For that reason, demand forecasting in pharmaceutical industry has more complex structure than other sectors. Human factors, seasonal and epidemic diseases, market shares of the competitive products and marketing conditions are considered as main external factors for forecasting pharmaceutical product. Additionally, active ingredients rate is also important factor for forecasting process. The objective of this study is to predict future demands from previous sales quantity with considering effects of the external factors by employing a neuro-fuzzy approach. Because of the biases of the external effects in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) topology, an ANFIS is applied as a neuro fuzzy approach. Given application illustrates the effectiveness of the approach.

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